Several thousand jobs are likely to be cut through layoffs and attrition when -- and if -- the $39 billion AT&T and T-Mobile merger is approved by the federal government in 12 to 18 months, analysts say. In the meantime, companies should continue hiring to fill existing needs, but will be more cautious than usual.
"I don't expect a bloodbath," said William Power, director of Wireless Communications Research at Robert W. Baird & Co. "It's still an industry that has growth and wireless demand grows like a weed. But there will be some head count reductions."
In a conference call this morning, an AT&T official said that most of the reductions would come through "natural attrition" -- meaning that positions will not be filled as employees retire or leave to work elsewhere. Power predicted that somewhere under 50% of staff reductions would come through layoffs.
Employees in corporate back office positions are most likely to find themselves out of a job, said Power. Senior leaders at T-Mobile will be among the first to go, though some may stay on through a transitional period, Power said. Power declined to speculate on the fate of specific executives.
Lower-level employees in everything from accounting to human resources can expect to have their jobs scrutinized as AT&T looks to eliminate redundancies in its newly combined workforce, said Jeff Kagan, an independent wireless and telecommunications analyst.
Retail locations are also likely to be closed in markets where the two companies currently compete.
T-Mobile employees are more vulnerable than those at AT&T because AT&T executives will be "making the decisions" about who stays and who goes, Power says.
The merger, if approved, could be a boon for the Communication Workers of America, the telecommunications industry's largest union.
AT&T's workforce is largely unionized, while T-Mobile's is not. Unlike T-Mobile, AT&T policy restricts management from interfering with the CWA in its efforts to unionize workers, says CWA spokeswoman Candice Johnson. Johnson described T-Mobile as hostile to unionization. "There's an atmosphere of fear that would be dispelled" under an AT&T takeover, Johnson said. T-Mobile's 37,795 person staff would have the option of joining the union once the merger is approved.
Of AT&T's 266,590 employees, about 56%, or 150,000 are members of the union.
T-Mobile did not immediately respond to a request for comment. An AT&T spokesman said it was "too soon" to comment on possible staff reductions.
Write to Joe Walker
